The comprehensive counteroffensive has begun!

The Chinese yuan has risen by a maximum of 737 points in the latest four trading days, and based on the current trend, it will continue to rise.

The latest official data shows that our country's export decline has narrowed to 6.4%, which can be seen as regaining the initiative in the trade war.

At the same time, the trade surplus has reached $56.53 billion, which will further support our counterattack in the currency war.

01

Every time the U.S. economy is not good, it will provoke wars. Some wars the U.S. does not directly participate in, but can gain a lot of benefits, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

There are also some wars that the U.S. directly initiates and participates in, such as trade wars and currency wars. From historical experience, the U.S. gains more from these wars.

However, this time the U.S. has encountered a tough opponent.

For example, in terms of trade, the U.S. is decoupling here, breaking chains there, and introducing one bill after another for trade protection, but its own imports have decreased, and exports have not increased.

On the contrary, according to the latest data released by our country's customs, our export situation is continuously improving.In June and July of this year, our export volume fell by more than 10% year-on-year at one point, but the decline narrowed significantly starting in August. The latest October data shows a decrease of 6.4% in US dollar terms, which is similar to the previous month; while in renminbi terms, the decrease is 3.1%, which is not significant.

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Looking at the month-on-month comparison, the export volumes for July, August, and September have been gradually increasing step by step.

In an article a few days ago, we pointed out that due to the economic downturn in European and American countries, demand has significantly decreased, leading to a noticeable year-on-year decline in imports from Western countries, which has also caused difficulties for many Asian export-oriented manufacturing countries.

South Korea's export volume in the first three quarters decreased by more than 11% year-on-year, and Vietnam and India also saw a decline of 8% to 10%.

Through such a horizontal comparison, it is found that our export performance is quite good.

Because the European and American markets are no longer our largest market, our main trading partners are currently ASEAN countries, and at the same time, trade with countries along the Belt and Road is growing rapidly, so we are relatively less affected by the decline in domestic demand in Europe and America.

In this global trade war, we are gaining more and more control.

02

The above export data is calculated in US dollars, so the year-on-year decline is also affected by the appreciation of the US dollar. If calculated in renminbi, the decline is relatively small. This indicates that exchange rates have caused errors in the calculation.

In fact, in our current bilateral trade, the use of renminbi and other currencies is increasing, no longer limited to just the US dollar as before. Calculating the export volume in US dollars is just a convention.Even when calculated in US dollars, this could quickly turn from a disadvantage to an advantage. Previously, the continuous appreciation of the US dollar led to a decrease in our export volume. However, going forward, we will see a significant increase in export volume due to the continuous devaluation of the US dollar.

In the recent trading sessions, the Chinese yuan has shown a significant appreciation against the US dollar.

Last Tuesday's offshore exchange rate for the yuan was at its lowest at 7.3440, and by this Monday, the highest exchange rate reached 7.2703. In less than a week, the maximum increase amounted to 737 points.

This should not be a short-term rebound, but a long-term upward trend, and it is believed that there will be continuous increases amidst fluctuations in the future.

The key reason lies in the fact that the previous rise of the US dollar did not have economic support; it was merely due to continuous interest rate hikes. Now that the US dollar is no longer being hiked, it should quickly fall back to its original position.

It can be said that in terms of currency warfare, the counteroffensive has also begun.

On the other hand, we continue to accumulate a growing trade surplus. In the first ten months of this year, our surplus reached 684.04 billion US dollars, with October alone contributing 56.53 billion US dollars.

If necessary, we can also continue to increase our foreign exchange reserves, which will be a strong support for the trend of the Chinese yuan.

On the other hand, as the status of the US dollar continues to decline and US debt is continuously sold off by countries around the world, more and more countries are realizing that the position of gold as a super currency is unshakable.Coincidentally, over the past year, we have been continuously increasing our holdings of gold, enhancing our gold reserves, which has also made the credit foundation of the renminbi increasingly solid.

Recently, the first energy trade settlement embedded with digital renminbi was completed, and we have been continuously making efforts in the field of digital renminbi, and have also received support from our trading partners.

More and more signals indicate that China's economy has entered a stage of comprehensive counter-offensive.