Gold Market Trend Analysis:
On October 8th, gold market news analysis: Due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, investors turned to safe-haven assets, and traders awaited this week's inflation data to further understand the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction path, causing gold prices to fluctuate sharply on Monday (October 7th). As of press time, spot gold rose by 0.2% to $2,647.07 per ounce. Gold prices once fell below the $2,640 mark, falling more than $20 from the daily high. Gold prices are caught in a tug-of-war between a stronger dollar and ongoing safe-haven demand, which may remain near current levels. The upcoming release of U.S. economic data may be the decisive factor to break this stalemate. The market is currently waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting and this week's U.S. consumer price index and producer price index data.
So far this year, gold prices have risen by about 29%, setting a series of historical highs, and the recent rise has been mainly driven by optimistic sentiment about interest rate cuts. Strong purchases by central banks and safe-haven demand from ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have also supported gold prices. The rebound and rise of the dollar are not a good situation for gold, but despite this, gold prices have remained stable, confirming investors' strong interest in gold. In addition, geopolitical tensions also support gold demand. Before the anniversary of the attack that triggered the current conflict on October 7th, Israel bombed targets in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip on Sunday. Meanwhile, data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last Friday showed that as of October 1st, fund managers' net bullish bets on gold had fallen to the lowest level in three weeks. This is because after recent price increases, both metals appear weak, and traders take profits. In terms of gold, it is worth noting that both long and short positions have decreased, as recent short-sellers worry about the deterioration of geopolitical situations, while long-held long positions continue to take profits.
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Gold technical analysis: Technically, the re-break of 2660 on Friday and the re-touch of 2650 have made both the weekly and daily lines close in the negative, which undoubtedly increases the probability of gold continuing to fall at the beginning of the week. The weekly line's cross-bearing negative report makes the price bearish and falls below the upper track of Bollinger, but the cycle moving averages are still in a bullish arrangement, and the short-cycle indicators maintain upward development. From the weekly perspective, the bulls have not lost their advantage. On the daily side, with the re-break of 2660, it fully reflects the strength of the bears, especially with the closing near 2650, giving up a rise of 30 to 40 points. However, considering that 2630 has not been broken, the daily line should still be cautiously bearish. On the 4-hour side, with the help of the non-farm bearish resistance, the gold price rebound also appears weak, and the pullback is rapid, and the short-cycle indicators are weak with the K-line, so there is still a sign of continued pullback on the 4-hour line.
Overall, gold is currently constrained by the suppression of non-farm bearish news. It is expected that before the CPI is announced, it may be difficult to get rid of the weak form. However, the low point support of 2630 at the beginning of this week still needs our focus. Before breaking, we can first see the rebound. If it breaks, then seeing 2615, the 2600 mark may also be in danger. Operational thinking: For intraday operations, it is suggested to continue to rely on the 2660 suppression for high layout in the short term, first look at the 2640 area for testing, if the bears can successfully break through 2630, it can be confirmed that the rise has temporarily slowed down, on the contrary, it means that the 2630-2627 area can participate in long positions without breaking. On the whole, today's gold short-term operation idea is suggested to be mainly rebound and air, and callback to do more as a supplement. The upper short-term focus is on the 2660-2665 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2630-2625 line of support.
Latest Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:
Crude oil market news analysis: On Monday (October 7th), in the oil market, investors closely watched the possible retaliatory actions of Israel against Iran. If the situation in the Middle East further escalates, oil prices may continue to rise. Recently, due to Biden's attempt to dissuade Israel from attacking Iran's oil facilities, oil prices have fallen. Analysts at JPMorgan believe that the United States is unlikely to support Israel's attack on Iran's oil facilities in the near future. However, if the situation continues to deteriorate, oil prices may be subject to significant fluctuations. In addition, if the situation escalates, Iran's proxies may launch attacks on Middle Eastern oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia. Although tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have eased, the situation remains fragile. Energy analysts predict that if Israel attacks Iran's important oil ports, international oil prices may soar by 5% in an instant. Although OPEC+ has enough idle production capacity, most of it is located in the Middle East Gulf region, and if the conflict escalates, this capacity may also be affected.
Crude oil technical analysis: Crude oil showed a continuation of the bullish trend yesterday. After stabilizing at the $73.6 line, it showed a continuation of the bullish trend, reaching a high point of $78.4, where it encountered resistance and hovered. It is currently hovering around $77.4. Looking at the daily chart level, oil prices have pierced through the moving average system, and the original medium-term objective trend downward has changed to a conversion rhythm, with strong bullish momentum. From the subjective trend perspective, the current trend is still within the range of upward adjustment, focusing on the key resistance above. If it breaks through, the medium-term trend will end the downtrend and gradually enter an upward rhythm. Based on the above analysis, crude oil has stabilized and rebounded, with the bulls occupying the main trend. Today's operational thinking suggests focusing on回踩 low more, with rebound high as a supplement. The upper short-term focus is on the $78.5-79.0 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the $76.5-76.0 line of support.
