Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them a fish, and the same applies to the trading market. Some people always hold short positions at low levels when the market rises, and long positions at high levels when the market falls. It's normal for trading to have wins and losses, but not setting a stop loss every time and hoping for an unexpected event to happen, while also wishing to be frequently rescued, is as likely as being struck by lightning. Don't make too many excuses for the losses you've caused. Think clearly before every entry: where are your stop loss and target positions, how to deal with unexpected situations, and when to exit when there's a profit. Think it through before entering the market.
Gold Market Trend Analysis:
Last week, Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve will seek a balance between curbing inflation and supporting the labor market. If the U.S. economic growth exceeds expectations, the pace of interest rate cuts may be delayed. Conversely, if the economy slows down more than expected, interest rates may decline more rapidly. In the short term, the gold market continues to be under pressure amidst a strong dollar, with gold prices consistently encountering resistance at higher levels and reaching lower highs compared to the lows after the release of last Friday's non-farm payroll data. Although the market's expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November have significantly diminished, geopolitical risks in the Middle East still provide some support for gold. Additionally, with the background of interest rate cuts still present, gold receives more buying interest when prices are low.
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In summary, the current gold market is still digesting the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of this year, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, which are favorable for safe-haven precious metals. Therefore, gold's pullback will attract a large number of buyers. In the short term, it leans towards weakness, but in the medium term, it is easier to rise than to fall.
Gold Trading Ideas:
Key trading suggestions for the market focus on taking short positions near 2665-2660 and buying on dips at 2620-2625. For the day, pay close attention to the resistance at 2680-2690 and support near 2590-2600.
Crude Oil Trading Ideas:
After falling in the first half of the week, crude oil prices rebounded supported by the lower Bollinger band and were then strongly pushed up by the tense situation in the Middle East. The daily high touched 72.52 dollars per barrel, and after the market consolidated and fell back, it closed at 71.27 dollars per barrel. The market ended with a large positive candlestick with a longer lower shadow than the upper shadow, indicating potential for further increases. Currently, the high point has already stood above 74.
The crude oil market is currently too affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the short-term market trend has a strong emotional trend risk. In terms of operations, crude oil has a full large positive candle, effectively standing above the previous converging triangle's lower rail resistance, thus returning within the channel. So, if the support at 72.9 is confirmed on a pullback, it is treated as a continuation of the bullish view. If the short term cannot break below 74.2, then the high position continues to be bullish, with resistance targets at 76-77. If there is a pullback to the target division point, entries can be made with a stop loss.
Spot Silver:From a technical perspective, the weekly chart has shown four consecutive weeks of positive performance, which indicates a bullish trend. However, the strength is clearly insufficient, as each new high is followed by a plunge. The bulls are relatively not strong enough, so it is advised not to be overly bullish on silver. Even if there is a rise, it still needs to accumulate strength. Before the impact of this week's CPI data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, focus on the range of 32.5 to 30.5 for consolidation. Do not expect a significant drop unless the price breaks below 30.5, as only then can a valid one-sided decline be formed. For medium to long-term trading, maintain a short position near 32.5.
