Generally speaking, consumption, investment, and exports are referred to as the "three engines" that drive economic growth. As a major player in trade of goods, China's importance in foreign trade is self-evident. How was the import and export situation in the first quarter of this year?
On April 12th, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export situation for the first quarter of 2024. In the first quarter, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 10.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%.
Among them, exports were 5.74 trillion yuan, increasing by 4.9%; imports were 4.43 trillion yuan, increasing by 5%; the trade surplus was 1,306.35 billion yuan.
This achievement is enough to be called a "good start" for 2024!
In terms of scale, the total amount of imports and exports has steadily increased and broken through the 10 trillion yuan mark for the first time in the same period of history.
In terms of growth rate, the export growth rate accelerated by 4.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and the import growth rate accelerated by 2.3 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of last year, with the growth rate of imports and exports reaching a new high since the fourth quarter of 2022.
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In terms of the ranking of trading partners, ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with a total import and export amount of 224.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and a trade surplus with ASEAN of 46.5 billion US dollars.
The European Union ranks second, with a total foreign trade amount of 179.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, and a trade surplus with the European Union of 55 billion US dollars.
The United States ranks third, with a total bilateral foreign trade amount of 150 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and a trade surplus with the United States of 70.2 billion US dollars.
In terms of the share of trading partners, in the first quarter, the import and export to countries participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative was 4.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.5%, accounting for 47.4% of the total value of imports and exports.Imports and exports to the other nine BRICS countries amounted to 1.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.3%, accounting for 14.7%.
The combined import and export value to the EU, the United States, South Korea, and Japan accounts for 33.4% of the total import and export value.
In the past, China's foreign trade was quite evident in its "one-legged" approach, overly dependent on developed country markets. When the European and American economies had a "cold" or "fever," our foreign trade industry would also have to "cough" a couple of times.
In recent years, the construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative has begun to show results, with imports and exports to countries along the route already occupying "half the river and mountains" of China's foreign trade, and the export destinations becoming increasingly diversified.
Although the import and export shares of developing countries are not large when calculated separately, the sheer number of countries ensures that if one area is not thriving, another will be, as there is always a cloud with rain somewhere.
Of course, despite China's foreign trade achieving good results in the first quarter, many issues have also been exposed.
Especially in March, the export growth rate fell back, and exports to the EU and the United States both saw a significant decline, which requires our attention.
According to customs data, in dollar terms, in March, China's total import and export value was $500.8 billion, with exports down 7.5% year-on-year and imports down 1.9% year-on-year.
Among them, the export value fell back by 47.0% month-on-month from January to February, and exports to the United States fell 15.9% year-on-year, a significant drop of 20.9 percentage points from January to February, mainly due to the small peak in restocking by American importers before the Spring Festival and the high base of last year.
It is particularly important to note the EU, where imports and exports as a whole declined in the first quarter, and in March, China's exports to the EU fell 14.9% year-on-year, an increase in the decline of 13.6 percentage points from January to February.As China's second-largest trading partner, the European Union (EU) has always maintained a strong demand for Chinese goods. In addition to traditional labor-intensive products such as clothing, footwear, hats, and toys, there has been a significant increase in exports to the EU in recent years for "new three items" such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries.
The sluggish performance of China-EU trade in the first quarter is mainly due to the EU's increasing trade protectionist tendencies. Under the influence of high interest rates, the economic development of the eurozone has been less than satisfactory. In March, the manufacturing PMI dropped from 46.5% to 46.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the retail sales index fell by 0.7%, indicating weak internal demand and a lack of strong import intentions within the EU.
On the other hand, to protect local enterprises from the impact of external competition, the EU introduced the "Foreign Subsidies Regulation," increasing scrutiny of foreign enterprises. It announced investigations into China's photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries, adopting discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises and even entire industries.
It is understandable that China-EU trade has been affected to some extent. However, the EU's approach does not solve its own problems. By protecting backward industries, it loses opportunities for future development.
In summary, the characteristics of China's foreign trade in the first quarter are: good performance, but many problems.
Since 2023, the export growth rate to developed countries has always been weaker than that to developing countries, showing that the impact of the soft decoupling of Western economies from us is gradually emerging. The transformation of the export structure is imperative, and the pain of the transition period is inevitable.
We should maintain an optimistic and calm attitude towards foreign trade data and have full confidence in our own development. The potential of the world's second-largest economy should not be underestimated.