Gold:

Gold prices slowed their decline overnight, and there is a possibility of a short-term rebound. However, there is no sign that the medium-term adjustment has ended, so it is best to be bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term. Today, the U.S. September inflation data will be released, which could serve as a tool to gauge the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy, and it is worth paying attention to.

The current market expectation is that the probability of a significant rate cut in November is low, with about an 88% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and an 11% chance of keeping rates unchanged. If the U.S. inflation data rebounds tonight, the Federal Reserve would have every reason to pause rate cuts. Several Federal Reserve officials have previously emphasized that policy should be based on economic data, so tonight's CPI data could have a significant impact on the market.

In addition, the upcoming U.S. election will add uncertainty to the global economy. Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini, believes that if Trump returns to the White House, it will increase the risk of stagflation. Trump's policies are more impactful than Harris's, with his high tariffs, dollar devaluation, and immigration policies being a significant upheaval of current U.S. policies.

Technically: Gold's daily chart closed with a doji, which may be a correction for the excessive deviation. The 4-hour cycle broke through the long-term moving average support, and the decline has slowed down. There is a possibility of a short-term downward fake break followed by a rebound. Short-term long positions can consider the $2,600 level.

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Crude Oil:

Crude oil prices fluctuated overnight, with a slight decline followed by a rebound, almost recovering the daily loss, but it did not reverse the downward trend on the daily chart. The easing situation in the Middle East could be the last straw to break the camel's back for oil prices, and there is a possibility of a change in fundamentals.

U.S. EIA crude oil inventories rose for two consecutive weeks, increasing by 5.81 million barrels, higher than the previous week's 3.889 million barrels, with market expectations of an increase of 2.048 million barrels. The rise far exceeded market expectations. The U.S. consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell by 6.9 to 98.7 in September, indicating a decline in U.S. consumption capacity, which will have a negative impact on crude oil consumption. Perhaps the trend of rising crude oil inventories has already formed, which could exert long-term pressure on oil prices.

Daan Struben, a senior energy economist at Goldman Sachs, said that the escalation of conflict between Israel and Lebanon did not provide much support for oil prices. Media reports show that after OPEC+ plans to increase crude oil production by 180,000 barrels per day starting in December, concerns about oversupply may intensify, and the global crude oil supply and demand imbalance may further worsen.Technical Analysis: Crude oil closed a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart, confirming the support level below is effective. There is a possibility that the downtrend structure in the 1-hour cycle may be completed, as the price re-enters the previous high trading volume area. The probability of a short-term rebound is quite high, and short-term bullish positions can pay attention to the support at $72.70.