The US dollar, after a significant surge last week, is experiencing profit-taking for the second consecutive day today. Despite high risk aversion, it fails to rise further, which may indicate that the short squeeze has been completed and a slow decline may start from now. The 55-day SMA at 101.99 is the first line of defense, where it coincides with the psychological level of 102 as support. If this area is broken, 100.62 can also act as support. However, if it continues to fall, it will test the year-to-date low of 100.16. The psychological level of 103 is the first target on the upside, and 103.18 is the limit for this week. Once it surpasses this level, the dollar will enter a very volatile area. The target after breaking through can be seen at the 100-day SMA of 103.32, the 200-day SMA is at 103.76, and the key resistance is at 104.
During the US trading session, spot gold continues to decline, and it has now broken below the monthly low of $2605, falling nearly $50 from the daily high. According to options data, the range of 2601-2606, where both long and short positions are prominent, should be the next main focus for bears. Here, the bearish funds decreased by nearly 200 contracts, while the bullish funds slightly increased by 50 contracts, making it both a target and support. If it continues to break below this area, there are consecutive bearish options lurking below, with the first target at 2591, and the main target at 2581, where bearish options increased by 300 contracts. On the other hand, if it holds the monthly low again, the range of 2636-41, where bearish options slightly increased, should be the first resistance for a rebound.
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Gold: As expected, a significant plunge occurred during the US trading session, with the lowest point currently near 2610. Today's article also mentioned that gold and silver have entered a bearish trend. The target positions of 2630 and 2615 have been perfectly achieved. What everyone is most concerned about now is where this low point will go and when it will bottom out. From my personal judgment, it will not form a reversal pattern before this Thursday's CPI. Therefore, gold and silver will maintain a low position for at least 1-2 trading days. Not to mention whether it can continue to set new lows, I do not expect gold and silver to rebound before Thursday's CPI release. Gold has already broken through the daily moving average on the daily chart. If it cannot close above 2620 today, it will continue to accelerate the correction tomorrow. Below, it will continue to look towards the moving average support position near 2580, which will need to wait until Thursday's morning. Therefore, it is highly likely that gold will continue to fall until the release of Thursday's CPI. So, I suggest that if you want to go long next, it's best to wait until near 2580. For now, it is definitely still bearish, but do not chase. It is best to wait for an opportunity to rebound to near 2630 before we can continue to enter the short position.
Crude oil: Due to the comprehensive impact of geopolitical situations, oil prices will inevitably face some selling after a significant increase. Moreover, Israel did not really make a military response, and the tense situation began to ease. Coupled with the recovery of Libyan supply and concerns about the Asian economy, the downward correction of crude oil has become more significant. It is expected that before the oil price finds strong support, it may further correct. The fake breakthrough of crude oil on Monday can be ignored, as it has completely given up the increase on Tuesday. This means that the key resistance above is still valid, that is, the downward trend line and the 100-day SMA converge at $75.72, becoming a strong resistance. Once it stabilizes above this level, the 200-day SMA of $77.15 should hinder further increases, just like it did at the beginning of today's trading. The previous resistance has become support. First, the 55-day SMA of $72.71 acts as a potential first line of defense. Further down, $71.46 becomes the second support, followed by the psychological level of $70, and I expect $67.11 to be the last place for bulls to buy on dips.