Over this period, the U.S. stock market has been continuously rebounding, giving the illusion that after experiencing inflation and the U.S. debt crisis, it now seems as if the storm has passed and the skies have cleared. However, in the early hours of today, the U.S. Nasdaq index plummeted by 300 points, once again turning everyone's optimistic mood into pessimism.

Most importantly, a new indicator reflecting the U.S. recession has set the deepest decline record since the subprime crisis.

01

The U.S. Economic Leading Index (LEI) has been falling continuously for 15 months, setting a record since 2009.

This trend has raised concerns about the future economic trend, as similar situations in the past often foreshadowed the arrival of an economic recession.

Looking back, similar economic index declines occurred in 2001, 2008, and 2020, which subsequently triggered economic recessions.

These recessions had a severe impact on the U.S. economy, leading to rising unemployment, business closures, and a decline in consumer confidence, among other issues.

The current depth of the economic index decline is approaching the levels seen in 2001 and 2020, which means that the U.S. economy may face a recession comparable to those periods in the future.

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Moreover, looking at the duration of the decline in this economic indicator, it has already exceeded the duration of the declines in 2020 and 2001, approaching the level seen during the subprime crisis.This trend has sparked concerns about the U.S. economy, with many economists and observers beginning to reassess the economic outlook for the future.

It appears that a recession in the United States is now inevitable.

02

There are multiple reasons for the decline in economic indicators.

Firstly, the escalation of global trade tensions has had a negative impact on the U.S. economy. Trade wars and tariff measures have led to a decrease in exports, disruptions in supply chains, and increased uncertainty in business investments.

Secondly, even after the most aggressive interest rate hikes in nearly 40 years, the United States has still been unable to reduce the inflation rate to the target level of 2%.

It now seems that more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are needed, and these additional hikes could further trigger a recession.

Life is becoming increasingly difficult for the American people.

According to the latest statistics, the savings of the American public have dwindled to just $500 billion, and this figure is expected to be completely depleted by the end of this year.

This means that many families will be unable to cope with sudden economic hardships, leading to a further decline in their quality of life.More worryingly, the rejection rate for credit applications has reached an alarming 21.8%. This is the highest level since 2002, indicating banks' concerns about lending risks.

Many Americans are facing a situation where they cannot obtain loans, unable to borrow new to repay old, further exacerbating their financial pressure.

This predicament may trigger a series of problems, the most serious of which could be a wave of debt defaults.

Many families, with their savings depleted, often choose to repay old debts with new debts. But now that banks are continuously rejecting new loan applications, ordinary people cannot repay existing debts and may be forced to choose default.

03

The increasing debt and rising prices are leading to a decreasing consumption capacity among Americans.

In order to gain a larger market share, the new energy leader Tesla has to reduce prices multiple times, but this has become a bad news on the financial report.

The financial report for the second quarter shows that Tesla's profit margin has plummeted by more than 18%, causing the stock price to fall by nearly 10% in the early morning, and the total market value has also evaporated by more than 80 billion US dollars, equivalent to 600 billion yuan.

Now the US economy is about to face the threat of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The US dollar index broke below 100 a few days ago and has temporarily returned above 100, but it may quickly break below 100 again after the rate hike.It appears that the probability of the U.S. economy achieving a soft landing is increasingly low.