Gold Market Trend Analysis -

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, which recorded an annual rate of 1.8%, higher than the market's expected 1.6%, and the previous value was also revised up from 1.7% to 1.9%. Although the monthly rate recorded 0%, slightly lower than the market's expected 0.1%, the overall data reflects that inflationary pressures still exist. The core PPI annual rate is also as high as 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.7%, continuing to show strong inflation stickiness. This data highlights the complexity of the U.S. inflation situation, causing the market to once again engage in intense discussions about the future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This increase in gold reflects the market's concerns about inflation risks, and the sentiment of seeking safety has heated up again. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) performed relatively weakly, with a short-term drop of more than 10 points, currently reporting 102.83. The weakness of the dollar is directly related to some indicators of the PPI data that did not meet market expectations, especially the flat monthly rate, which has led investors to question the short-term support strength of the dollar. The release of the PPI data undoubtedly increases the market's uncertainty about the future policy path of the Federal Reserve. Many well-known institutions believe that the September PPI data show that U.S. inflation is generally stable, providing some basis for the Federal Reserve to further reduce interest rates within the year or at the beginning of next year. The sharp decline in gasoline prices has provided support for curbing the upward pressure on PPI, and although the price of food wholesale has risen significantly, the decline in energy prices has obviously weakened the overall risk of inflation going up. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is particularly crucial at this moment, and the market is highly sensitive to it. Previously, the market generally believed that the Federal Reserve's tightening policy cycle was nearing its end, and the September PPI data confirmed this expectation to some extent. Although the annual rate data is still higher than expected, the market still sees signs of slowing inflation, especially the cooling in the energy sector, which has reignited the market's longing for interest rate cuts. Institutions generally believe that the stabilization of inflation will give the Federal Reserve more room to slow down interest rate hikes in the future or gradually shift to a rhythm of reducing interest rates. Some analysts even believe that in the first quarter of next year, the Federal Reserve may initiate the first interest rate cut, which will have a significant impact on both the dollar and gold markets. A well-known analyst pointed out, "The Federal Reserve's next move depends on the subsequent economic data, and the moderate performance of PPI and CPI may provide them with a further reason for easing."

Technically, on the daily chart, gold is still in a high position with a small range of consolidation, and the technical indicator MACD forms a death cross, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) begins to fall from the overbought area, showing that gold has a heavy head in the short term. If the gold price breaks below the low of September 30 at $2,624 per ounce, it may fall back to the $2,600 per ounce level. If it further weakens, the next support will be the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,531 per ounce. On the other hand, if the gold price can close above $2,650 per ounce and needs to break through $2,670 per ounce, it can challenge the highest point of this year at $2,685 per ounce. After that, the gold price will aim for the $2,700 per ounce level.

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Gold idea -

Now that gold has broken through the 4H midrail of 2626 again, the possibility of falling below it has become smaller. For the time being, focus on the interval points between 2640-2660, and the lower space expansion is between 2630-2660. The fallback carries a stop loss of 2642, and touching the low position nearby is an opportunity to go long, mainly based on Ma Jincheng's actual disk strategy. The article has a delay and is for reference only (the suggestion is for reference only, investment has risks, and entering the market should be cautious!)

Crude oil idea -

After falling in the first half of the week, the crude oil price was supported by the Bollinger lower rail and rebounded. Then, the market was strongly pushed up by the tense situation in the Middle East, with the daily highest touching $72.52 per barrel. After that, the market was sorted out and fell back, and the daily line finally closed at $71.27 per barrel. After that, the market closed with a large阳线 with a lower shadow line longer than the upper shadow line. After such a shape, crude oil has the potential to continue to rise, and the current high point has already stood above 74.

At present, crude oil is too affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the short-term market trend has a very emotional trend risk. In terms of operation, crude oil is full of large yang, and the entity effectively stands on the previous convergence triangle lower rail anti-pressure point, thus returning to the channel. Then,回踩confirms the support of 72.9 and continues to treat it as bullish. If the short line cannot break 73, then the high position continues to be bullish, and the resistance target is 76-77. If there is a fallback to the target division point, it can be entered with a stop loss.

Spot silver -The silver market opened yesterday at the position of 31.674. After that, the market first fell to the position of 31.253. Then the market quickly rose, with the highest daily touch reaching the position of 31.768. After that, the market fell all the way, with the lowest daily touch reaching the position of 30.106. At the end of the day, the market rose, and the daily line finally closed at the position of 30.658. Today, it is suggested to go short at 31.25, with a stop loss at 31.45. The target below is to see 30.5 and 30.2.